This Advertising Cloud Platform May Be Staging a Quiet Comeback

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) isn’t back to its glory days just yet, but the tide may finally be turning. After losing nearly 60% from its 52-week high, shares have rebounded by 20% in the past month and have just earned a spot in the S&P 500, a milestone that could mark the start of a sustained re-rating.

Behind the scenes, ad spend is rebounding, its AI platform Kokai is gaining traction, and Trade Desk’s cash generation remains rock solid. For investors willing to look beyond the scars of 2024, TTD may offer one of the cleanest large-cap turnarounds in the ad tech sector. More on that below.

Action Item: Accumulate shares between $75 and $82 before institutional S&P fund demand drives a repricing.

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Why the Market Overcorrected and What Comes Next

The Trade Desk was a Wall Street favorite until one fumbled quarter in late 2024, its first revenue miss in eight years. The market reacted violently, wiping billions off the company’s valuation. But was that fair?

Not really.

TTD’s Q4 stumble was more about timing, not fundamentals. Advertisers delayed spending into 2025, macroeconomic clouds loomed, and Kokai, its AI-powered platform upgrade, was still ramping up. Fast-forward to Q1 2025, and the picture already looks different:

  • Revenue: $616M (+25% YoY)

  • Net Income: $51M (+8%)

  • Operating Cash Flow: Robust and rising

  • Guidance: Stable, with upside surprises likely in H2

Unlike Meta or Google, TTD doesn’t own media inventory. It helps buyers access it efficiently across various channels, including CTV, audio, mobile, and display. That makes it an arms dealer in the $650B digital ad war.

Action Item: Watch for Q2 earnings (early August). Expect strength in CTV spend, programmatic adoption, and early Kokai ROI data, which are all potential catalysts for upside.

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Kokai: The AI Engine That Could Restart Growth

Kokai, launched in 2023, is The Trade Desk’s most crucial product evolution in years. It utilizes AI to optimize ad budget allocation, bid strategy, and real-time audience targeting, transforming what were once manual, high-friction processes into more intelligent, automated workflows.

Early results are compelling:

  • 43% lower cost per unique household

  • 24% lower CPC

  • 27% lower CPA

But the broader significance of Kokai is strategic. It cements TTD’s moat as a transparent, self-service DSP that empowers advertisers, not platforms. With growing backlash against walled gardens and cookie-based targeting, TTD offers a more ethical, brand-safe alternative.

Ad tech cycles tend to be feast or famine. TTD has done the hard work of staying lean and innovating through the downcycle. As ad budgets loosen, Kokai’s impact could magnify fast.

Action Item: Track case studies and advertiser testimonials from Kokai users. If enterprise adoption accelerates, it could signal a breakout second half.

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S&P 500 Inclusion: An Underappreciated Tailwind

As of July 18, TTD is officially a member of the S&P 500. That might sound like a footnote, but it’s not. Index inclusion means:

  • Forced buying by trillions in passive funds

  • Lower cost of capital from better liquidity and institutional confidence

  • More analyst coverage, more options activity, and more momentum traders watching it

More importantly, inclusion resets how investors perceive the stock. It’s no longer a risky mid-cap software name, it’s now a mature digital infrastructure player, considered a core tech allocation.

Action Item: Use any near-term pullbacks to build or add to long-term positions. Historically, S&P 500 entrants experience a multi-week “post-inclusion drift” higher as demand unfolds.

The Digital Ad Market Is Still Booming

Digital advertising is expected to grow from $650 billion in 2025 to over $1.5 trillion by 2034. Within that, Trade Desk’s specialty, programmatic ad buying, continues to outpace legacy formats.

The CTV boom is a massive part of that. As linear TV crumbles and streaming platforms expand ad inventory (even Netflix is now in), TTD is becoming the connective tissue for advertisers looking to reach fragmented audiences with precision.

And despite Amazon’s recent moves to tighten its grip on CTV via Roku, analysts don’t expect Trade Desk to be squeezed out. Its OpenPath product offers direct access to premium publishers like Disney, NBC, and Paramount. That hedge against platform lock-in will only get more valuable over time.

Action Item: Monitor Roku/Amazon integration news, but don’t overreact. TTD remains a leading DSP in CTV and will benefit as more platforms seek neutral bidding layers.rants experience a multi-week “post-inclusion drift” higher as demand unfolds.

Risks and Re-Rating Potential

There are reasons TTD fell, and some still apply:

  • The P/E ratio is high (99x trailing) and still vulnerable to growth hiccups

  • Competitive threats from Amazon’s DSP and Google’s DV360 are real

  • Tariffs and weak consumer sentiment could squeeze ad spend in key verticals like auto and retail

  • Execution risk on Kokai scaling remains

But here’s the offset: TTD trades at just 8x EV/revenue and 21x EV/EBITDA, according to Truist, despite having a 30%+ 5-year revenue CAGR and over 25% EBITDA margins. That’s a setup we like, especially with structural tailwinds.

Action Item: Set a near-term target of $95 based on multiple expansion and S&P momentum. Use a trailing stop to manage volatility as earnings season approaches.

Final Word: Betting on the Rebuilders

The Trade Desk has already proven it can grow, scale, and generate cash. Now it’s proving something even more valuable. It can rebound. After a rare stumble, the company is back to growing revenue 25% YoY, onboarding new advertisers, and scaling a next-gen AI platform with measurable ROI.

It’s also telling that BMO, Truist, Citizens JMP, and Jefferies all reaffirmed bullish ratings post-correction, even as they lowered near-term targets. That reflects a belief in the long game.

If TTD can show another strong quarter and sustain platform momentum, it could climb back toward its $115–$125 range by mid-2026.

Action Recap:

  • Accumulate on dips between $75–$82, before index demand fully hits

  • Track Q2 earnings (early August) for Kokai progress and CTV ad spend metrics

  • Monitor Roku/Amazon ad ecosystem shifts, but stay focused on platform-agnostic advantage

  • Set a medium-term target of $95–$100 if momentum holds post-S&P inclusion

In an ad market where power is shifting from publishers to platforms, The Trade Desk remains one of the few independent players with scale, innovation, and trust on its side.

It’s been beaten up, but it might not be beat.

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider