Barking Up the Right Tree

Autoship strength, vet care expansion, and a loyal customer base could make this stock a buy.

A retailer that defined the pet e-commerce boom is clawing back momentum.

Shares are up nearly 50 percent in the past year as recurring revenues rise, veterinary clinics scale, and analyst sentiment improves.

With earnings on deck, investors may want to consider whether this setup offers both growth and stability.

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Strategic Positioning: The Go-To Platform for Pet Parents

Chewy (NYSE: CHWY) has become the default online destination for pet supplies, medications, and food. Its business model thrives on repeat purchases, particularly consumables, which insulate it from broader economic slowdowns. Autoship, which lets customers schedule recurring deliveries, now accounts for 82 percent of total sales, creating predictable revenue streams and reinforcing customer loyalty.

The company’s mission extends beyond e-commerce. It is building a pet health ecosystem that includes pharmacy services and veterinary clinics. With U.S. pet spending topping $152 billion annually, and $40 billion attributed to vet care and pharmaceuticals, Chewy is carving out adjacencies that could extend its long-term runway.

Action Item: Investors should consider starting a position around $38–$40 ahead of Q2 earnings on September 10, with a focus on recurring revenue strength as the key confirmation signal.

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Momentum Drivers: Recurring Revenue and New Growth Engines

Q1 results showed net sales of $3.12 billion, up 8.3 percent year over year and above guidance. Autoship revenue grew nearly 15 percent, demonstrating the reliability of its subscription-like model. Active customers reached 20.8 million, with 240,000 net additions and higher spending per customer.

Chewy+ membership, launched out of beta earlier this year, is showing promise in boosting order frequency and cross-category penetration. Sponsored ads are also ramping up, providing a higher-margin revenue stream that complements retail sales. Together with the expansion of vet clinics, these initiatives represent meaningful growth drivers outside core product sales.

Citizens JMP, Barclays, and BofA all see these efforts as catalysts for margin expansion and higher earnings over the medium term. Piper Sandler and Barclays each have $48–$50 price targets, while JMP maintains an Outperform rating.

Action Item: If Q2 results show net sales growth of at least 7 percent and stable gross margins, consider adding to positions on strength above $42.er 10, with a focus on recurring revenue strength as the key confirmation signal.

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Valuation: Growth at a Relative Discount

Chewy trades at about 45 times earnings and 20 times EV/EBITDA, rich on absolute terms but attractive compared to peers in high-growth retail. Its forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.38 is below the industry average of 2.0, suggesting that investors may be underestimating its scale advantages and recurring revenue base.

Compared to competitors, Chewy looks compelling. Petco trades at just 0.15 times sales but faces significant operational struggles. BARK has declined sharply and remains unprofitable. Chewy has the market position, scale, and customer loyalty to separate itself from peers.

Technicals: Momentum Turning Positive

At $40, Chewy trades above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling strong momentum. The stock is 14 percent below its 52-week high of $48.62 but up nearly 50 percent from its lows in late 2024.

Key levels to watch:

  • Support: $37 as near-term floor, $33 as stronger downside protection

  • Resistance: $45 short-term, $48 longer-term test of the 52-week high

  • Breakout Trigger: A decisive move above $50 on volume could reset the trading range higher

Action Item: If Q2 results show net sales growth of at least 7 percent and stable gross margins, consider adding to positions on strength above $42.er 10, with a focus on recurring revenue strength as the key confirmation signal.

Institutional and Analyst Sentiment

Institutional positioning is mixed. Citigroup trimmed its holdings by 23 percent in Q1, while Alyeska Investment Group boosted its stake by over 6,000 percent. Overall, hedge funds and asset managers appear to be rebalancing exposure, with net inflows in recent months supporting the rally.

Analysts remain constructive. JMP, Piper Sandler, and BofA all have price targets near $48–$50, while Barclays remains bullish despite a recent sell-off tied to a large block trade from BC Partners. The average analyst target sits just above $44, implying near-term upside from current levels.

Risks to Monitor

  • Volatility: Chewy has a beta of 1.7, meaning the stock tends to move nearly twice as much as the market.

  • Margins: Gross margin misses in the past two quarters have raised concerns. Management must demonstrate stabilization.

  • Competition: Amazon and Walmart remain formidable, particularly in consumables and quick-delivery services.

  • Tariffs and inflation: Higher costs on imported goods or consumer weakness could dent demand.

  • Insider and sponsor sales: Recent selling by BC Partners pressured the stock, and further divestments could weigh on sentiment.

Final Word: A Loyal Base with Room to Run

Chewy has established itself as the go-to online pet retailer, with Autoship creating a predictable, high-quality revenue base. New growth drivers like vet clinics, Chewy+, and sponsored ads add incremental upside, while the overall pet care market continues to expand.

At current levels, the stock offers investors exposure to a category that has proven resilient through economic cycles. The valuation is not cheap, but compared to peers it remains reasonable given the scale, growth, and brand loyalty. With Q2 earnings around the corner, the stage is set for Chewy to prove that its growth story still has legs.

Action Recap

Start a position between $38–$40 ahead of Q2 earnings on September 10
Add on confirmation of net sales growth above 7 percent and margin stability
Target $45 near-term and $48–$50 longer-term on sustained growth momentum
Use $33 as a stop-loss to manage downside risk
Monitor adoption of Chewy+, vet clinic expansion, and ad revenues as leading growth indicators

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider